The results of yesterday's by-elections in Mitchell's Plain and Parow show that the Democratic Alliance (DA) is on track to win an outright majority in the Western Cape, provided that DA voters in the province turn out on Election Day.
The fact that the DA also won two other by-elections in their wards in Kempton Park, Gauteng, does not suggest that their growth across South Africa is on the cards for April 22.
In my opinion, when the final votes are counted after the National Election on 22 April, the Congress of The People (COPE) will in all probability become South Africa’s next official “new” opposition. I’m not making this statement merely because COPE supporters happen to be running second place on the “online supporters” widget of the website at www.saelections.co.za, but rather because I have personally witnessed many blacks openly supporting COPE in public by wearing their T-shirts and displaying their flags. I’ve seen this in Gauteng in the densely populated cities of Pretoria and Johannesburg, and in many places in-between. At the end of the day it’s all a numbers game. With blacks in the majority at just over 38-million, making up 79.6% of the total population, the odds are against the DA keeping second place. Sorry Helen Zille, we cannot say you didn’t try your best!
Maybe the time has come for the DA to use their strong position in the Western Cape to bargain for a National coalition with COPE, before the ANC and COPE decide to form that alliance their president Reverend Mvume Dandala insinuated earlier this month. Oh, --- but what am I thinking now! If they form a coalition then the DA will still be the official opposition. I really hate SA politics!
Maybe I should just stick to reading Chris McEvoy’s “Idiot Guide to Elections 2009”. Part 1 is here – Enjoy!